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The inconvenient truth about ‘net zero’ emissions

  • Publication Date | April 20, 2021
  • Document Type | Letter to the Editor
  • Programmes | Climate Change
  • Issues | International Treaties
  • Tags | Carbon Colonialism, Carbon Offsetting, Decarbonisation, Emissions, Net Zero, Paris Agreement, Real Zero
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In the international climate discourse, the goal of countries embracing net zero emissions reductions by 2050 has been heralded as showing high ambition. 

Coming from the highest official in the United Nations, viz. the Secretary-General, António Guterres himself, the general public can be forgiven into thinking that net zero emissions reductions by the world’s major ‘emitters’ will save us from a planetary climate crisis.

Nothing can be further from the truth and requires deeper scrutiny as to why such net zero pledges will not be able to limit temperature rise to 1.5-degree C since pre-industrial levels.

While efforts to goad governments to do more climate action are laudable, net zero emission targets by 2050 for rich countries and their corporations, will not be enough as they are not ambitious enough.

What is needed to avert a permanent catastrophe is urgent and rapid action on the part of rich developed countries to get to ‘real zero’ emissions now and not ‘net zero’, as this delays action for another 3 decades! This delay, the planet cannot afford.

In recent months, some northern governments and several big corporations, including major fossil fuel companies have announced net zero targets. 

Analysis by major civil society groups including ActionAid International, Friends of the Earth International and Third World Network have shown that such net-zero announcements are unambitious, do not go far enough and some are even dubious.

These pledges have been viewed as not being enough in terms of what should be the fair and equitable effort needed by rich countries, within a shrinking carbon budget to limit temperature rise to 1.5 C. 

“Far from signifying climate ambition, the phrase ‘net zero’ is being used by a majority of polluting governments and corporations to orchestrate escape clauses so as to evade responsibility, shift burdens, disguise climate inaction, and in some cases even to scale up fossil fuel extraction, burning and emissions. The term is used to greenwash business-as-usual or even business-more-than-usual. At the core of these pledges are small and distant targets that require no action for decades, and promises of technologies that are unlikely ever to work at scale, and which are likely to cause huge harm if they come to pass”,

say these climate justice groups. 

Much of these net zero pledges are not grounded in deep decarbonisation and rely heavily on nature-based solutions (NbS) as sinks, to sequester the carbon emissions. Much of them rely on carbon-markets to deliver carbon offsets mainly in developing countries. What offsetting means is for developed countries not to reduce their emissions domestically, but to pay developing countries to do the emissions reductions, as it is seen as being more “cost-effective” to buy the carbon credits to offset the emissions generated in the developed world. 

With or without carbon offsetting, such pledges create a huge demand for sinks mainly located in the forests, wetlands and grasslands in the developing countries. There is no known published research yet that add up the quantities of carbon removal that make up the net zero pledges of these countries and corporations. 

What seems clear though is that the quantity of the sinks needed would exceed the sequestration capacity of the planet by several fold. This will have negative implications for developing countries, including in generating conflicts over land-use, as well as among local communities and indigenous peoples, whose lands and forests are being sought to solve the emissions problem of the rich nations. 

Climate justice groups have referred to this as 'carbon colonialism'. 

Limiting temperature rise to 1.5-degree C requires the sharing of the remaining carbon budget in an equitable manner. For a 50% probability of keeping warming below the limit, the carbon budget remaining is 480 gigatonne CO2 equivalent (GtCO2eq). At the current rate of emissions of 42 GtCO2 eq per year, the budget would be exhausted in about 12 years!

With a shrinking carbon budget, the right approach ought to be one where the rich developed world takes the lead in much deeper cuts in their emissions based on a fair-shares approach, that takes into account their historical and current cumulative emissions, including on a per capita basis. 

Such equity based proposals never saw the light of day, due to tremendous resistance from developed countries, especially from the United States, on the grounds that no international agreement can dictate a top-down approach to emissions reductions for countries. 

In fact, analysis by serious academics and progressive civil society groups have pointed out that rich countries are not doing enough at all.

For instance, one recent analysis “rooted in the principle of equal per capita access to atmospheric commons” by Dr. Jason Hickel from the University of London reported in The Lancet, pointed out that as of 2015 the Global North was responsible for 92% of excess emissions. By contrast, most countries in the Global South were within their boundary of fair shares, including India and China (although China will overshoot soon). 

Instead of focusing on what the emission reductions ought to be from a fair-shares perspective in order to keep within the remaining carbon budget left in an equitable way, the net-zero mantra allows developed countries to get away with targets which amount to doing too little too late, and passes on the responsibility to developing countries to do the heavy lifting, without commensurate finance and technology transfer.    

The Paris Agreement does call for a balance between human emissions and removal by sinks by 2050, but this is to be on the basis of equity and in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty. This is a global aspiration, and is not a country-wise aim. It cannot be country-wise, as this would lead to inequity.  

The fallacy of net zero emissions needs to be exposed for what it is. It is no panacea in solving the climate crisis. The rich North cannot run away from what they must do today, which is to go to real zero and to assist developing countries to do their fair-shares, through the finance and technology transfer needed, as well as to build their capacities so that they do not repeat the mistakes of the North. 

Net zero is indeed a mirage to delay further action by the rich nations most responsible for the crisis in the first place. The sooner we realise this, the better, for the sake of the planet and the poor.

Meenakshi Raman
President

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Testimonials

Sahabat Alam Malaysia adalah satu badan bukan kerajaan (NGO) yang telah sekian lama berjuang mempertahan kelestarian alam. Ia juga mendidik masyarakat tentang pentingnya kebersamaan dalam pemikiran dan tindakan agar alam ini dapat kita wariskan kepada generasi hadapan dalam keadaan yang elok dan terpelihara. Dalam pada itu juga SAM giat membantu golongan nelayan pantai dalam memperjuangkan hak-hak mereka sehinggalah tertubuhnya Persatuan Pendidikan dan Kebajikan Nelayan Pantai Malaysia (JARING). Nelayan pantai sepenuh masa ini dididik oleh SAM sehingga mereka mampu memainkan peranan sebagai pemimpin nelayan yang meneruskan kesinambungan memperjuangkan hak-hak nelayan pantai lainnya. Sebagai contoh SAM telah berjaya menyedarkan masyarakat nelayan keperluan menjaga hutan paya bakau untuk kebaikan hasil tangkapan nelayan itu sendiri.
Jamaluddin Mohamad Bualik
Jamaluddin Mohamad BualikPersatuan Pendidikan dan Kebajikan Jaringan Nelayan Pantai Malaysia (JARING)
During the 1980s, I used to read about the Consumers’ Association of Penang (CAP) in the news. After retirement, some time in 2001, while lazing around, I read news about the construction of a carbon in leach plant using sodium cyanide to extract gold in Bukit Koman. My friends and I visited CAP and we were introduced to SAM and her legal team. We discussed the details of filing a case against the gold mining company and the department of environment with Ms Meenakshi Raman and her legal team. That was the beginning of a beautiful friendship between lawyers from SAM and many of us from Bukit Koman. We had many ups and downs in our struggle to shut down the gold mine that was causing a nuisance in our village. But, as a community we never gave up because SAM had our backs.
Hue Fui How
Hue Fui HowSecretary, Bukit Koman Ban Cyanide in Goldmining Action Committee (BCAC)
Sahabat Alam Malaysia adalah sebuah NGO yang memperjuangkan nasib masyarakat luar bandar khasnya. SAM menerima aduan-aduan masyarakat dan menyelesaikan masalah yang dihadapi. SAM telah mewujudkan ramai aktivis-aktivis sosial dan alam sekitar. Pada era 1980 dan 90an SAM sangat dihormati oleh masyarakat dan agensi kerajaan. Apabila media sosial menguasai maklumat maka SAM pun terkesan dan masalah masyarakat terus disalurkan dengan pelbagai cara. SAM perlu mewujudkan aktivis-aktivis pelapis yang muda untuk terus membantu masyarakat. SAM juga perlu membuat perubahan supaya banyak turun kelapangan dan jangan mengharapkan laporan media sahaja. Tingkatkan prestasi sebagaimana pada zaman kegemilangan SAM di era 80-90an.
Che Ani Mt Zain
Che Ani Mt Zain
SAM taught me the importance of social activism and the role it plays in upholding the rights of people and the protection of the environment. In my experience, SAM has never hesitated to speak up in defence of people and their environment, and has gone the extra mile to champion their rights, by helping communities take their battles to the higher ups and even to the courts.
Jessica Binwani
Jessica BinwaniPublic/Private Interest Lawyer
Semenjak kami kenal SAM, banyak pengalaman dan pengetahuan yg kami dapat. Kami telah belajar cara membuat baja asli daripada SAM. Semenjak itu, bermulalah minat kami dalam aktiviti pertanian. Dengan memperolehi kemahiran dalam membuat baja asli dan penanaman lestari, kami juga telah dapat menambahkan pendapatan sampingan kami. Ini lebih baik daripada tanah kami terbiar dan tidak diusahakan. Terima kasih SAM kerana sudi memberi bantuan dan tunjuk ajar kepada Persatuan kami.
Chedo Anak Nyuwen
Chedo Anak NyuwenPersatuan Penduduk Sg Buri, Bakong, Marudi
My journey with SAM started when her community organisers took me to the meet the paddy farmers of Kedah, connecting my growing interest in environmental law with our people who struggle to work the land in the face of pollution, replacement of traditional seeds with commercial hybrids and their accompanying chemical package of fertilisers and weedicides. I then had the honour to work with SAM in the struggle for the rights of the native communities of Sarawak, in defence of their forests from massive logging and destructive mega-projects. In every issue that SAM takes up, she combines rigorous research with the realities and voices of the communities to advocate for policies and laws that care for people and nature. From the courts to the elected legislators to policy makers and implementers and to the United Nations, SAM walks side by side with the communities in Malaysia. How can I not be inspired by the vision and passion of the generations of women and men who coalesce to form SAM?
Chee Yoke Ling
Chee Yoke Lingstudent of SAM, Executive Director of Third World Network, SAM’s sister organisation

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Sahabat Alam Malaysia (Headquarters)
No. 1, Jalan Joki, 11400 Penang,
Malaysia
Tel: +604 827 6930
Fax: +604 827 6932

Sahabat Alam Malaysia (Marudi Office)
129A, First Floor,
Jalan Tuanku Taha,
P.O.Box 216,
98058 Marudi, Baram, Sarawak,
Malaysia
Tel & Fax: +6085 758 973

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